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Project Executive Group
1330 Post Oak Blvd., #1600
Houston, TX 77056 USA
info@projectexecutive.com
Tel: 713-591-3757
1330 Post Oak Blvd., #1600
Houston, TX 77056 USA
info@projectexecutive.com
Tel: 713-591-3757
Featured Book by one of our own Project Executives.
Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to
advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level:
* Why is the duration uncertain?
* And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution?
These are then progressively elaborated:
* How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date?
* How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually?
* How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all?
Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current
commercial software.
Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this
volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas,
information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not
only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply
themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project
schedule.
Contents: Preface; Why schedule risk analysis? Looking beyond the critical path method; Uncertainty in
activity durations: using probability distributions; Uncertainty along a schedule path: using Monte Carlo
simulation; A good project schedule is needed: Critical Path Method scheduling 101; Collecting risk
data: exploring methods and problems; Where parallel paths merge: introducing the 'merge bias' and
risk criticality; Probabilistic branching: analyzing discrete risk events; Using risks to drive the analysis
and prioritize risks: introducing the 'risk driver' method; Schedule contingency plans: using conditional
branching; When activity durations move together: incorporating correlation; Risk management in the
organization: identifying the mature risk management culture; Appendix: the problem with PERT; Index.
About the Author: David T. Hulett is internationally recognised as a leading expert in risk management,
leader in risk management activities of the Project Management Institute (project manager of the Risk
Management chapter of the PMBOK® Guide, 2000 and 3rd editions), deputy PM of the Practice Standard
for Project Risk Management (ongoing) and frequent conference speaker. He has a consulting and
training practice with clients in many industries around the world.
Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to
advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level:
* Why is the duration uncertain?
* And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution?
These are then progressively elaborated:
* How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date?
* How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually?
* How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all?
Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current
commercial software.
Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this
volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas,
information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not
only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply
themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project
schedule.
Contents: Preface; Why schedule risk analysis? Looking beyond the critical path method; Uncertainty in
activity durations: using probability distributions; Uncertainty along a schedule path: using Monte Carlo
simulation; A good project schedule is needed: Critical Path Method scheduling 101; Collecting risk
data: exploring methods and problems; Where parallel paths merge: introducing the 'merge bias' and
risk criticality; Probabilistic branching: analyzing discrete risk events; Using risks to drive the analysis
and prioritize risks: introducing the 'risk driver' method; Schedule contingency plans: using conditional
branching; When activity durations move together: incorporating correlation; Risk management in the
organization: identifying the mature risk management culture; Appendix: the problem with PERT; Index.
About the Author: David T. Hulett is internationally recognised as a leading expert in risk management,
leader in risk management activities of the Project Management Institute (project manager of the Risk
Management chapter of the PMBOK® Guide, 2000 and 3rd editions), deputy PM of the Practice Standard
for Project Risk Management (ongoing) and frequent conference speaker. He has a consulting and
training practice with clients in many industries around the world.
David T. Hulett, PhD
Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the
schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of
assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have
occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method
(CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the
scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager
knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only
estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk
analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to
the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule
risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will
result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early
opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions.
Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the
schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of
assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have
occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method
(CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the
scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager
knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only
estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk
analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to
the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule
risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will
result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early
opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions.
| Direct from Ashgate Publishing (10%). Use Discount Code G1CXD35 for a 35% discount. |
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